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November 01, 2004
Not Baseball
In non-baseball matters, there is the small matter of a Presidental Election approaching. After reviewing the relevant facts, I feel confident in projecting John Forbes Kerry as the 44th President of the United States based on the following:
1. Millions and millions of new voters this year. You've got to figure they break towards Kerry, at least 60/40. Even if half of them don't vote, or 75% for that matter, this should be enough to give Kerry 2 of 3 in PA, OH & FL.
2. Cubans. They went big time for Bush in 2000, but they're not going to this time because of Bush's decision to limit travel back to Cuba. People can only go see family members once every three years. Kerry takes FL because of this.
3. Cell Phones. As everyone knows, the polls are pretty even but they don't ever call cell phones when conducting them. I don't have a land line. Sara doesn't have a land line. Of all the other people that are cell phone only, they are almost uniformly our age or younger, people that lean Kerry. That leads me to believe the polls are under estimating Kerry's support.
4. Undecideds. Even if they only represent 5%, it's enough to swing things. They historically break 70/30 for the challenger, especially when the incumbent has an approval rating below 50% like Bush (48 last I saw).
Kerry wins, with about 310ish EVs, though it might not be called on Tuesday night. The biggest upside of this that I can see is that we won't have to put Sara on suicide watch.
Posted by stan at November 1, 2004 06:15 PM